I think there's a related problem where profiling/measurements can be made poorly and not reflect the real world.

Eg: indexing or partitioning a database table may appear to make things slower if you don't have both a representative amount of data and representative query patterns when you're measuring the change.

You should still measure your changes, but sometimes you need to be careful about measuring them in the right way, and possibly simulating a future context (eg: more scale) before drawing a conclusion.

Intuition about how the context will evolve and what effect that might have on the tradeoffs of different approaches is helpful